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Abstract Body size is an essential factor in an organism's survival, and when paired with paleoenvironmental proxies, size trends can provide insights into a lineage's evolutionary responses to changing environmental conditions. This study explores the diversity and body-volume trends of dacryoconarid tentaculitoids, globally abundant marine zooplankton, in the Devonian of the Appalachian Basin (eastern United States), spanning the late Givetian through the middle Frasnian punctata carbon isotope excursion. Using statistical approaches to model trends, we find evidence of a gradual, within-lineage reduction in styliolinid adult body sizes starting at the Givetian-Frasnian boundary. This reduction is followed by a significant decrease in both adult and initial chamber volumes during the punctata excursion. At the Givetian-Frasnian boundary, annulated forms (nowakiids) become rare and smooth forms (styliolinids) begin to dominate the assemblage. Using pre-existing geological and geochemical data sets, we consider environmental factors, including sea level, anoxia, nutrient availability, and temperature, as potential drivers of body-size reductions. Bottom-water anoxia most likely did not influence body-size trends of this pelagic group, but frequent water-column overturning in the Frasnian or other exchange between deep and shallow water may have affected taxonomic composition, favoring styliolinids. Sea-surface temperature correlates inversely with body size, suggesting that warming beginning in the early Frasnian may have contributed to gradual, long-term size reductions. Rising temperatures through the middle Frasnian may have led to the disappearance of dacryoconarids in the northern Appalachian Basin after the excursion. 

Abstract Efforts to estimate past global mean temperature and latitudinal gradients must contend with spatial heterogeneity in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we use modern SSTs to show that the environments from which most paleoclimatic data are drawn, shallow epeiric seas and continental margins, are systematically offset from zonal mean temperatures. Epeiric seas are warmer and more seasonal than open‐ocean values from the same latitudes, while continental margins exhibit consistent and predictable deviations related to gyre circulation. Warm temperatures inferred from Paleozoic proxy data may largely reflect that these data derive almost entirely from epeiric seas. Moreover, pseudoproxy analysis using Paleogene sampling localities demonstrates how undersampling of the full range of dynamical environments associated with gyre circulation can generate spurious estimates of latitudinal temperature gradients. Recognition of these global patterns permits a predictive framework within which to more robustly interpret proxy data, improve Earth system models, and reconstruct ancient dynamic regimes. 

As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.